Research Paper 27, April 2010

Export Dependence and Sustainability of Growth in China and the East Asian Production Network.

The South Centre has published a research paper by its Special Economic Advisor and Chief Economist Yilmaz Akyuz, addressing export dependence and their contribution to growth in China and its supplier developing economies in East Asia, in the context of re-examining their growth strategies in light of the global economic crisis and medium term global growth prospects.

China cannot return to pre-crisis export growth rates at a time when growth in the US and Europe is below potential, unemployment remains high and sticky, and reduction in global imbalances is seen as the key to global stability. It needs to shift from export-led to consumption-led growth and reverse the downward trend in the share of consumption in national income. This calls for a higher share of wages in value-added and significantly greater government transfers to households, and large public spending on social infrastructure.

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