An Analytical Note on the DG’s Revised Road to Yaoundé MC14 Working Draft (JOB/TNC/127/Rev.2/Add.1), 26 January 2026
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This paper provides an analytical assessment of the revised “Road to Yaoundé” for the Fourteenth WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). It examines the design of the proposed Ministerial programme and process, with a focus on their implications for inclusivity, balance, collective ministerial engagement, and the legitimacy of outcomes. The analysis considers how structural and procedural choices may shape ministerial deliberation and political signalling at MC14, particularly in light of the long-overdue fulfilment of development mandates and growing systemic challenges facing the multilateral trading system.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Impacts on Developing Countries’ Exporters: The Case of Sri Lanka
By Anushka Wijesinha and Senith Abeyanayake
Key Takeaways:
Rapid increases in uncertainty have material implications for economies. Each tariff announcement by the US President triggered a fresh round of uncertainty and speculation, with ambiguities of implementation and frequent changes in timelines.
Global indices tracking uncertainty are recording historic highs in recent months.
Our study of Sri Lankan export-oriented firms finds that there is wide variation in how, and to what extent, trade policy uncertainty has affected them. Firms experienced mixed impacts on orders to the US, with differences observed both within and across sectors.
Buyer reactions to tariff announcements were mixed, with some ‘wait-and-see’ approaches and some margin shrinkage. Exporters have taken diverse measures to adapt to the uncertainty, ranging from absorbing margin losses to commencing export diversification.
WTO Reform: Reflections on Reform Week and Suggested Approaches for Breakout Groups
A Note Reviewing the Process and Reform Tracks in Advance of WTO Reform Week, 5 December 2025
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This note provides an assessment of the papers circulated by the WTO Reform Facilitator for Reform Week and highlights the structural gaps that limit their balance and practical value to move forward these discussions in a manner that takes the demands and interests of developing and least developed country Members into account. The current drafts reflect a narrow interpretation of the consultations, introduce elements that were not examined collectively and overlook mandated issues that continue to shape the functioning of the system. This note sets out the adjustments that Members may wish to propose to restore a development centred framing, make a clear distinction between descriptive reflections and new reform ideas, and ensure that any work proceeds in line with Ministerial instructions for a member driven, transparent and inclusive process. The aim is to place the discussion on a footing that reflects the full range of Member views and respects the mandates already agreed.
South Centre Statement submitted to Session Three: A Fair and a Just Future for All:Critical Minerals; Decent Work; Artificial Intelligence
Dr. Carlos Correa, South Centre Executive Director, highlighted at the G20 Leaders’ Summit that while the world is transitioning to a critical mineral-intensive future, resource-rich poor countries are stuck at the bottom of the value chain. On AI, he stressed that the United Nations should continue to play an important role in shaping the international AI governance.
South Centre Statement submitted to Session One: Inclusive and sustainable economic growth leaving no one behind: Building our economies; the role of trade; financing for development and thedebt burden
South Centre Executive Director, Dr. Carlos Correa, spoke at the G20 Leaders’ Summit, congratulating South Africa’s successful G20 Presidency and stressing that any reform of the WTO should be development oriented & preserve S&DT.
Promoting a Symbiotic Relationship Between Trade Policy and Climate Action
By Vahini Naidu
This paper is based on remarks delivered in the lead up to COP30. It outlines how African countries are working to align trade, climate action, and development priorities through early transparency on climate-related trade measures, technology transfer, and the protection of policy space for green industrialisation. It also highlights the growing focus on critical minerals, the rise of unilateral climate-related trade measures, and the need to bring scattered initiatives into a coherent multilateral framework that supports fair and sustainable outcomes.
WTO Reform: Assessment of the Facilitator’s Communication and Process Ahead of the 4 November 2025 Plenary
An Informal Note Reviewing the Reform Tracks and Process in Advance of the 4 November Plenary, 2 November 2025
By Vahini Naidu, Trade for Development Programme, South Centre
This note provides an analytical assessment of the Facilitator’s Communication and process ahead of the WTO reform plenary held on 4 November 2025. It highlights the growing procedural opacity surrounding the reform process, characterised by informal, facilitator-led configurations that lack clear mandates, participation criteria, or official records of discussions. These methods have blurred the lines between Member-driven deliberation and Secretariat-managed processes, creating uncertainty over accountability, legitimacy and inclusiveness.
Substantively, the Facilitator’s synthesis elevates certain reform tracks, notably decision-making and level playing field, as forward-looking agendas, while confining the Development and S&DT track to a diagnostic or exploratory stage. This imbalance risks entrenching asymmetries rather than addressing them. By conflating S&DT with the broader development mandate, the Communication effectively narrows the systemic development agenda of the Marrakesh Agreement to a limited discussion of differentiation and eligibility.
Read together, the procedural and substantive dynamics reveal a process that is fragmented, imbalanced and at risk of being shaped by informal interpretations rather than by Member-driven decisions. The note calls for restoring transparency, reaffirming the primacy of consensus and re-centring development as the organising principle of WTO reform.
The Constitutional Shield: How Colombia’s Judiciary Shapes Investment Treaties Through Joint Interpretation
By Daniel Uribe Teran
This policy brief examines an innovative judicial approach by the Colombian Constitutional Court in response to an increase in investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims. The Court introduced a doctrine called ‘conditional constitutionality’ (exequibilidad condicionada), which mandates the executive to negotiate binding joint interpretative declarations prior to ratifying an International Investment Agreement (IIA). This process aims to clarify ambiguous language and ensure that IIA provisions align with constitutional principles, particularly concerning the sovereign right to regulate and the protection of human and environmental rights.
The analysis examines the “constitutional shield” doctrine established by this domestic mechanism, emphasising its legal basis in Article 31.3(a) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. However, it highlights a significant discrepancy: the uncertain acknowledgement of these subsequent agreements within the international investment arbitration framework. The brief notes that arbitral tribunals, which often function as autonomous legal systems, may not consistently respect such domestic constitutional provisions. This creates ongoing tension between national sovereignty and arbitral independence. The policy brief concludes by addressing the limitations of relying solely on domestic solutions and calls for systemic reforms at the international level, such as within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Working Group III.
Co-organized by the National Commission on International Trade & Health Studies (NCITHS), Thailand together with the International Trade & Health Programme (ITH), South Centre & other partners
Reeling Towards Termination: Assessing the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies and the Future of Fisheries Disciplines
By Vahini Naidu
The WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS, “Fish 1”) entered into force on 15 September 2025, introducing new disciplines on subsidies linked to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, overfished stocks, and certain high seas activities. While celebrated as a landmark achievement, the Agreement is partial in scope, omitting the broader category of capacity-enhancing subsidies that drive overcapacity and fish stock depletion. Its obligations rely on national determinations and extensive notifications that may prove burdensome for developing Members while allowing major subsidisers to retain flexibility. The unprecedented termination clause in Article 12 ties the Agreement’s survival to the adoption of additional “comprehensive disciplines,” underscoring both the fragility of the current outcome and the need for continued negotiations. The experience of Fish 1 reveals significant lessons for the proposed WTO reform, including the importance of reviewable and time-bound rules, the risks of imbalanced sustainability provisions, and the institutional weaknesses of restricted negotiating processes.
Advancing Responsible Foreign Investment through a Legally Binding Instrument on Transnational Corporations and Other Business Enterprises
By Daniel Uribe Terán
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) presents a complex dynamic, offering potential economic growth while posing significant risks of human rights abuses and environmental degradation. This policy brief considers that current voluntary frameworks, such as Economic, Social, and Governance (ESG) and voluntary due diligence standards, are insufficient to protect human rights, as they primarily focus on mitigating investor financial risk rather than preventing actual harm. Furthermore, the international investment regime, particularly the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, systemically undermines States’ sovereign right to regulate in the public interest. ISDS cases often penalise governments for enacting environmental, labour, and human rights protections, creating a “regulatory chill” that prioritises corporate profits over social welfare. The proposed Legally Binding Instrument (LBI) on business and human rights is presented as a necessary response to establish mandatory, enforceable obligations for corporations. This includes robust Human Rights Due Diligence (HRDD) and legal liability mechanisms, thereby rebalancing the system to ensure corporate accountability and align investment with sustainable development goals.
