Debt
Trends, Reasons and Prospects of De-dollarization
By Yuefen Li
The 1944 “Bretton Woods Agreement” gave birth to the new international financial system marked by the centrality of the US dollar which is a crucial pillar of the global power of the United States. Over the past eight decades, the asymmetry of the shrinking US economic weight in the world economy and growing dominant role of the dollar has become more and more glaring. The disadvantages of overreliance on the dollar have been keenly felt, especially by developing countries. The recent moves to weaponize the dollar and the payment clearance system have triggered another wave of reassessment by national states and enterprises of the role of the dollar and led to the hitherto most broad-based de-dollarization process covering from Southeast Asia to Latin America and the Middle East. De-dollarization has been incrementally taking place in different forms and led by BRICS and some commodity exporting countries. However, there are many challenges to meaningful de-dollarization. Overall, de-dollarization efforts, despite important progress, have been limited and partial. There has been progress in reducing overreliance on the dollar through foreign exchange reserve diversification and trade invoicing as evidenced by the decline in the dollar’s share of allocated foreign exchange reserves and the increase of trade invoiced and transacted in currencies other than the dollar. However, on aspects requiring the deep financial market and wide network such as foreign exchange transactions, issuance of debt and payment clearance, the dollar’s share has not suffered a decline. To reform the international financial system, the BRICS in particular should continue to take the lead in furthering the de-dollarization efforts.
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Trends, reasons and prospects of de-dollarization
By Yuefen Li
The 1944 “Bretton Woods Agreement” gave birth to the new international financial system marked by the centrality of the US dollar which is a crucial pillar of the global power of the United States. Over the past eight decades, the asymmetry of the shrinking US economic weight in the world economy and growing dominant role of the dollar has become more and more glaring. The disadvantages of overreliance on the dollar have been keenly felt, especially by developing countries. The recent moves to weaponize the dollar and the payment clearance system have triggered another wave of reassessment by national states and enterprises of the role of the dollar and led to the hitherto most broad-based de-dollarization process covering from Southeast Asia to Latin America and the Middle East. De-dollarization has been incrementally taking place in different forms and led by BRICS and some commodity exporting countries. However, there are many challenges to meaningful de-dollarization. Overall, de-dollarization efforts, despite important progress, have been limited and partial. There has been progress in reducing overreliance on the dollar through foreign exchange reserve diversification and trade invoicing as evidenced by the decline in the dollar’s share of allocated foreign exchange reserves and the increase of trade invoiced and transacted in currencies other than the dollar. However, on aspects requiring the deep financial market and wide network such as foreign exchange transactions, issuance of debt and payment clearance, the dollar’s share has not suffered a decline. To reform the international financial system, the BRICS in particular should continue to take the lead in furthering the de-dollarization efforts.
This is an advanced draft of the Research Paper.
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Can the World Afford to Put All Hopes on Debt Contract Improvements for Sovereign Debt Workout?
By Yuefen Li
The lack of a formal sovereign debt restructuring mechanism has been considered by many as a serious deficit or missing link in the international financial architecture. However, even though the international debates on the topic have been going on for decades, heating up each time with the onset of a debt crisis and cooling down when the crisis was contained, up to now such debates have not yet come to fruition. With the onset of the global financial crisis and especially the legal litigation against Argentina and Greek debt crisis, the debate has become even more intensified with views more convergent than ever on the need of a mechanism. For decades, timely and orderly sovereign debt restructuring which can restore medium term debt sustainability to debtor countries as well as less costly to creditors has been the common expectation of stakeholders involved in sovereign debt restructuring, except those who want to get their windfalls in the debt crisis. (more…)
Battle Hots Up to Curb ‘Vulture Funds’
By Martin Khor
Many countries are facing a worsening debt situation, and thus feel the urgency to curb ‘vulture funds’ and to set up a global debt restructuring mechanism. External debt is rearing its ugly head again. With the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices and less tourism, many developing countries are facing reduced export earnings and foreign reserves. No country would like to have to seek the help of the International Monetary Fund to avoid default. That could lead to years of austerity, high unemployment, cuts in social development and at the end of it, still no light at the end of the tunnel. (more…)
Resolving Debt Crises: How a Debt Resolution Mechanism Would Work
By Martin Khor
More countries are facing a debt crisis, and the world urgently needs an international system of debt arbitration and restructuring. This article describes the elements needed in such a system.
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