There are increasing warnings of an imminent new financial crisis, not only from the billionaire investor George Soros, but also from eminent economists associated with the Bank for International Settlements, the bank of central banks. The warnings come at a moment when there are signs of international capital flowing out of some emerging economies, including Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia. Some economists have been warning that the boom-bust cycle in capital flows to developing countries will cause disruption, when there is a turn from boom to bust. All it needs is a trigger, which may then snowball as investors in herd-like manner head for the exit door. Their behaviour is akin to a self-fulfilling prophecy: if enough speculative investors think this is the time to move back to the global financial capitals, then the exodus will happen, as it did in previous “bust” phases of the cycle. (more…)
Past Mistakes and Current Joint Responsibilities: the Greek debt crisis
By Yuefen Li
With the Greek debt crisis raging on, another round of blame exercise has started. It is not really unhealthy to do so, as with it comes the responsibilities for fixing the crisis. Looking back over the years since Greece joined the euro zone in 2001, it would be correct to say that the Troika -the European Central Bank (ECB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) – as well as the Greek government all have had their share of misjudgments, illusions, technical errors and political prejudices, though some parties more than the others. (more…)
Can the World Afford to Put All Hopes on Debt Contract Improvements for Sovereign Debt Workout?
By Yuefen Li
The lack of a formal sovereign debt restructuring mechanism has been considered by many as a serious deficit or missing link in the international financial architecture. However, even though the international debates on the topic have been going on for decades, heating up each time with the onset of a debt crisis and cooling down when the crisis was contained, up to now such debates have not yet come to fruition. With the onset of the global financial crisis and especially the legal litigation against Argentina and Greek debt crisis, the debate has become even more intensified with views more convergent than ever on the need of a mechanism. For decades, timely and orderly sovereign debt restructuring which can restore medium term debt sustainability to debtor countries as well as less costly to creditors has been the common expectation of stakeholders involved in sovereign debt restructuring, except those who want to get their windfalls in the debt crisis. (more…)
A new economic crisis is engulfing several developing countries which face sharp currency depreciation and capital outflows. This is caused by the boombust cycles in capital flows originating in profit-seeking investor behaviour in developed countries. (more…)
Why the US and Europe Have Not Managed Their Economic Crises Properly
By Yılmaz Akyüz, Chief Economist, South Centre
This is the first in a series of articles by the South Centre’s chief economist on the current global economic situation. This first article analyses why the economic policies of the US and Europe have been inappropriate in getting these major economies out of the crisis. The next few articles provide more details of this. Further articles will deal with how the developing countries’ economies are experiencing the adverse spillover effects of these major economies’ policies.
Developing countries are increasingly being adversely affected by the economic recession in Europe and the slowdown in the United States.
The hope that major emerging economies like China, India and Brazil would continue to have robust growth, de-coupling from Western economies and becoming an alternative engine of global growth has been dashed by recent data showing that they are themselves weakening.
Developing countries very vulnerable to global economic crisis, UN role is vital: South Centre speech at UN
By Yilmaz Akyüz
The world economy is as fragile today as in 2009. Developing countries are very vulnerable to a slowdown caused by the Eurozone crisis. There has been no global reforms and the G20 is ineffective. Thus the role of the UN on global economic issues is vital. These are highlights of the speech by the South Centre’s Chief Economist at the UN General Assembly High Level Thematic Debate on the State of the Global Economy in New York on 18 May.
Sustainable Development as an Answer to Economic and Financial Crises
Below is the speech delivered by Dr Yilmaz Akyüz, Chief Economist of the South Centre on the Sustainable Development Dialogue Roundtable on the Global Financial Crisis, UN Conference on Sustainable Development 2012, in Rio de Janeiro on 16 June 2012. (more…)
