SouthViews No. 304, 21 January 2026

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Impacts on Developing Countries’ Exporters: The Case of Sri Lanka

By Anushka Wijesinha and Senith Abeyanayake 

Key Takeaways:

• Rapid increases in uncertainty have material implications for economies. Each tariff announcement by the US President triggered a fresh round of uncertainty and speculation, with ambiguities of implementation and frequent changes in timelines.
• Global indices tracking uncertainty are recording historic highs in recent months.
• Our study of Sri Lankan export-oriented firms finds that there is wide variation in how, and to what extent, trade policy uncertainty has affected them. Firms experienced mixed impacts on orders to the US, with differences observed both within and across sectors.
• Buyer reactions to tariff announcements were mixed, with some ‘wait-and-see’ approaches and some margin shrinkage. Exporters have taken diverse measures to adapt to the uncertainty, ranging from absorbing margin losses to commencing export diversification.

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SouthViews No. 139, 6 December 2016

Rethinking trade policy and protectionism in the Trump era

By Martin Khor

What kind of trade policy will the United States have under President Donald Trump? This is a hot issue, as Trump has made unorthodox pronouncements on trade issues during and after the election campaign. If he acts on even some of the positions he took, it will create a sea change in trade policy in the US and possibly the world. Trump has recently emphasised that he will take the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) on his first day of office, and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). (more…)