Harnessing Open Account Trade — A Major Enabler for Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries
Can blockchain technology come to the rescue? Will the African Continental Free Trade Area leverage its Digital Trade Protocol?
By Yuefen Li
The current geopolitical landscape has made domestic resource mobilization an even more important imperative for developing countries. In this context, it is more urgent than ever to combat illicit financial flows (IFFs) whose staggering amount from developing countries has outstrippedthe combinedsum of official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI)going into the developing world. The IFFs from the financial channel is significant, but the greater proportion ofIFFs actually stems from trade channels rather than from financial channels. It is particularly concerning that the flexibility and legitimacy of international trade have been exploited to cover IFFs. Trade mis-invoicingisthe largest component of IFFs from developing countries. A major reason for trade being used to undertake illicit, fraudulent or criminal activities is because 80%-85% of the more than US$ 24 trillion international trade is conducted via open account trade (OAT), which has minimum scrutiny as it is conducted on a bilateral basis between the importer and exporter, not transparent and with minimal involvement of the financial institutions and customs authorities. OAT payment does not require documents to prove quality, quantity and other information about the product being shipped and is made through automatic payment systems which lack the oversight provided by any third party. OAT gives trade mis-invoicing great ease, flexibility, minimal cost and minimal risk. Therefore, if the world is serious about combatting IFFs, it is urgent and imperative to close loopholes in the OAT for IFFs, making it transparent, trackable and involving third party monitoring and scrutiny. The functionalities and features of Blockchain technology (BCT), though its implementation is still nascent, can be a good candidate to make OAT more modern, transparent to regulators, traceable, more efficient and above all minimize IFFs.The goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)’sDigital Trade Protocol (DTP)includeboosting intra-African trade through unifying and harmonizing regulatory framework for Africa’s digital economy and regional trade, promoting cross-border data flows and paperless trade,and enhancing cybersecurity measures.Theexploration of Blockchain adoption to reduce OAT’s risks for IFFs and make trade more effective aligns well with DTP’s goals.
Impact of Global Trade Tensions on Developing Countries: How to respond to a reset of the global economic system
By Yuefen Li
The recent unilateral, significant and broad-ranging tariff hikes by the new United States administration have triggered unprecedented trade tension in the world and led to significant downward revisions of the world’s economic and trade growth projections for 2025 and beyond.The main aims of the U.S.’ trade policies are complex and strategic, not only about reducing thetrade and fiscal deficits, but also addressing the dollar overvaluation problem, “reconfigur(ing) the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit”, promoting economic “fairness” and “making America great again”.As what has frequently happened before, the poor countries are disproportionally affected by the negative repercussions of thesepolicies, owing to their financial and capacity constraints and weaknesses to absorb the impact. This short paper analyses through which channels and to what degree trade tension would introduce economic, financial and political stability risks for developing countries, particularly in financially distressed developing countries. A few policy recommendations are also briefly mentioned.
As the World Trade Organization (WTO) marks its 30th anniversary, Director-General (DG) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for a reflection process to assess the organisation’s achievements and chart its future. For developing countries, this reflection presents a significant opportunity. A well-managed process could begin to address the structural imbalances embedded in WTO rules that constrain policy space, limit technology access, and restrict development pathways. Conversely, a poorly handled approach risks reducing it to a narrow review that fails to account for the broader economic realities shaping trade and the persistent development needs of the Global South. This paper argues that the DG’s reflection process must be firmly member-driven, with clear governance principles, and rooted in a comprehensive development audit to assess how WTO rules have impacted developing countries over the past three decades. The paper contends that a meaningful reflection requires more than procedural introspection; it requires a serious conversation about the future of global trade governance and its relevance to development, ensuring that the WTO’s evolution genuinely responds to the priorities of its majority membership.
America First, Trade Last: The Rise of Weaponised Tariffs
By Vahini Naidu
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited economic nationalism, transforming tariffs into instruments of political and economic coercion. His administration’s four-phase strategy—setting policy objectives, conducting strategic reviews, imposing preemptive tariffs, and unpredictable brinkmanship—signals a shift towards unilateralism that bypasses traditional legal frameworks and undermines multilateral trade governance. The recent tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on security grounds, represent an unprecedented expansion of executive power in trade policy. As the U.S. weakens the WTO and prioritises economic nationalism, the Global South faces a decisive moment. The increasing use of trade measures for geopolitical leverage threatens to further marginalise developing countries. In response, the Global South must take a proactive role in shaping the global trade landscape—deepening South-South cooperation, enhancing regional trade frameworks, and advancing structural reforms to promote resilience and economic sovereignty in an era of growing trade uncertainty. This piece argues that Trump’s trade strategy marks a broader shift towards a power-driven trade order, where economic dominance supersedes rules-based governance, and that the Global South must act decisively to prevent a future where trade is dictated by the strongest rather than negotiated through fairness and equity.
Contract-based Arbitration: Lessons Learned from Bolivia’s Extractives Industries
By Daniel Uribe Teran
Bolivia has undergone a significant shift in its approach to investment dispute resolution, moving away from reliance on Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) and international arbitration towards domestic mechanisms and contract-based arbitration. This shift, driven by a desire to assert greater state sovereignty over natural resources, seeks to align dispute resolution with national development priorities while reducing the costs associated with international arbitration. The recent Shell Bolivia Corporation v. YPF Bolivia case highlights the complexities inherent in contract-based arbitration within the extractive sector, emphasizing the need for meticulous contract drafting and a clear definition of arbitrable disputes within the framework of Bolivian law.
This article analyses Bolivia’s transition from reliance on international investment treaties and arbitration to a domestic, contract-centred approach for resolving disputes in its extractive industries. The article examines how the legal framework adopted by Bolivia highlights the role of contract-based arbitration in addressing disputes related to investment, production, technology transfer, environmental and social impacts, labour relations, and contract interpretation. The article draws lessons from other developing countries’ experience, recommending that Bolivia further strengthen its investment framework by adopting clear protection standards, prioritizing fair administrative procedures, and emphasizing domestic remedies. This approach seeks to balance attracting responsible investment with protecting state sovereignty and promoting sustainable development in Bolivia’s extractive industries.
Assessing Five Years of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Proposals on Potential Amendments
By Kiiza Africa
On 30th May 2024, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) celebrated its fifth anniversary, which legally implied that the agreement is up for review for possible amendments. To kickstart this review, the Thirty-Seventh Ordinary Session of the African Union Summit (held in February 2024) directed the AfCFTA Secretariat to take necessary measures for the start of the review of the Agreement. This review comes at a moment when the AfCFTA implementation and its vehicle, the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), have been fraught with challenges. Broadly, these challenges include the slow submission of tariff liberalization schedules by State Parties, infrastructure deficits, persistent non-tariff barriers and trade wars in regional economic communities, and overlapping regional trade commitments. Thus, the upcoming AfCFTA review provides an opportunity to assess progress, identify implementation bottlenecks, and propose actionable amendments. This paper examines these challenges through a comprehensive analysis of the AfCFTA’s state of play, illuminating the progress while highlighting the slow momentum registered for the past five years of its operation. Proposals for the agreement’s amendment revolve on accelerating infrastructure development, harmonizing rules of origin, integrating labor rights, and fostering industrial diversification. By moving beyond liberalization as its raison d’être and prioritizing the scaling up of State Parties’ productive capacities, the AfCFTA can evolve from a mere trade liberalization agreement into a transformative driver of Africa’s economic renaissance. It is hoped that this timely assessment underscores the urgency of reorienting the AfCFTA to unlock its full potential for propelling intra-Africa trade.
Investor Obligations in International Investment Law
by David Cheng, Jai Abhijit Unde, and James Casey Ryan
Prepared for the South Centre as part of the Geneva Graduate Institute’s LL.M. Legal Clinic Programme
This report first outlines key instruments and different approaches that some States across Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas have taken to reform the international investment regime in relation to investor obligations. Second, it charts the trends arising from investment tribunals following Urbaser across environmental and human rights cases. Third, it describes and evaluates the reform efforts at the multilateral level. Finally, it summarises and evaluates avenues for policy reform by States.
Ensuring A Balanced Approach in UNCITRAL Working Group III
co-organized by Gobierno de Colombia, Diplomatische Akademie Wien, Universidad Externado de Colombia, and the South Centre
Views from the Global South on the Multilateral Investment Court and Procedural and Cross-cutting Issues in Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Reform.
24 September 2024
Diplomastiche Akademie Wien,
Festsaal, Favoritenstrasse 15a,
1040 Vienna, Austria
FIRST DISCUSSIONS ON DAMAGES IN THE INVESTOR-STATE DISPUTE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM AT UNCITRAL WORKING GROUP III
By José Manuel Alvarez Zárate
This paper summarises the history of initial discussions within UNCITRAL Working Group III (WG.III) on the reform of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) regarding the lack of correctness, consistency and predictability of compensation awards. It covers the period up to 2022, beginning with the initial concerns expressed by some countries of the Global South regarding the methodologies used to assess damages and the Draft on Damage Assessment and Compensation prepared by the UNCITRAL Secretariat, which served as the basis for subsequent discussions among the members of WG.III. It then describes the comments made by some states and observers on this draft and the discussions that ensued, including the discussion of damages as part of the issues of ISDS reform. A second paper on this topic will describe the period from September 2022 to the publication by the Secretariat of the second draft of procedural and cross-cutting issues on July 8, 2024.
The purpose of this paper is to provide Global South States with a track record of the main concerns expressed by States on various aspects of damages during the discussions in UNCITRAL WG.III, which have often been lost at some point during the long process of discussions on ISDS reform.
Ensuring a Balanced Approach for the Global South in UNCITRAL Working Group III
By José Manuel Alvarez Zarate
This paper examines the ongoing efforts of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Working Group III (WG III) to reform the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) system. It argues that the current approach prioritises the concerns of developed countries over those of the Global South. The document highlights the disproportionate focus on the Permanent Multilateral Investment Court (MIC) and related issues, while neglecting procedural and cross-cutting concerns crucial for developing nations. The paper proposes concrete actions to rebalance the discussions, including prioritising procedural reforms and ensuring equitable representation in the MIC’s structure and appointment process. It emphasises the need for transparency, depoliticisation, and genuine consideration of the Global South’s concerns to achieve a genuinely legitimate and balanced ISDS reform.
Discussions on Draft Provisions on Damages in the Investor-State Dispute Settlement System in UNCITRAL Working Group III
By José Manuel Alvarez Zárate
This paper summarizes the discussions within the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Working Group III (WG III) on the reform of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) regarding the two draft provisions on damages prepared by the UNCITRAL Secretariat as part of the two drafts on procedural and cross-cutting issues. It covers the period from September 2022 to July 8, 2024. It describes the draft provisions on damages and related provisions on procedural and cross-cutting issues of document A/CN.9/WG.III/WP.231, dated 26 July 2023, as well as the comments made on it by some members of WG III and observers. It also describes the changes to the above document contained in the second draft on the procedural and cross-cutting issues, dated July 8, 2024, contained in document A/CN.9/WG.III/WP.244.
The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the comments made by some States on the draft provisions on damages, the substantive changes made by the Secretariat to the first draft, mostly based on the comments made by some States, and the exclusion of important aspects highlighted by some Global South States in their interventions. In the light of this review, countries of the Global South may consider commenting on document A/CN.9/WG.III/WP.244 to ensure that their concerns are effectively taken into account.
Foreign Direct Investment Screening for ‘National Security’ or Sustainable Development: a blessing in disguise?
By Daniel Uribe Teran
Over the past decade, the global adoption of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening mechanisms (ISMs) has surged, reflecting developed countries’ policies aiming at restricting FDI on the grounds of broadly defined ‘security’ or ‘national’ interests. Recent geopolitical and economic crises have further fuelled this trend, leading to increasingly stringent ISMs. This paper explores the definition, evolution, and current practices of ISMs, highlighting their resurgence and differing motivations globally. It examines how, if properly used, ISMs could also be used to promote sustainable development and resilience, and advance climate action agendas. The paper also provides policymakers with insights into maximizing the impact of ISMs to achieve sustainable development and economic resilience in an interconnected world.
