South-South Trade
Impact of Global Trade Tensions on Developing Countries: How to respond to a reset of the global economic system
By Yuefen Li
The recent unilateral, significant and broad-ranging tariff hikes by the new United States administration have triggered unprecedented trade tension in the world and led to significant downward revisions of the world’s economic and trade growth projections for 2025 and beyond. The main aims of the U.S.’ trade policies are complex and strategic, not only about reducing the trade and fiscal deficits, but also addressing the dollar overvaluation problem, “reconfigur(ing) the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit”, promoting economic “fairness” and “making America great again”. As what has frequently happened before, the poor countries are disproportionally affected by the negative repercussions of these policies, owing to their financial and capacity constraints and weaknesses to absorb the impact. This short paper analyses through which channels and to what degree trade tension would introduce economic, financial and political stability risks for developing countries, particularly in financially distressed developing countries. A few policy recommendations are also briefly mentioned.
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America First, Trade Last: The Rise of Weaponised Tariffs
By Vahini Naidu
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited economic nationalism, transforming tariffs into instruments of political and economic coercion. His administration’s four-phase strategy—setting policy objectives, conducting strategic reviews, imposing preemptive tariffs, and unpredictable brinkmanship—signals a shift towards unilateralism that bypasses traditional legal frameworks and undermines multilateral trade governance. The recent tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on security grounds, represent an unprecedented expansion of executive power in trade policy. As the U.S. weakens the WTO and prioritises economic nationalism, the Global South faces a decisive moment. The increasing use of trade measures for geopolitical leverage threatens to further marginalise developing countries. In response, the Global South must take a proactive role in shaping the global trade landscape—deepening South-South cooperation, enhancing regional trade frameworks, and advancing structural reforms to promote resilience and economic sovereignty in an era of growing trade uncertainty. This piece argues that Trump’s trade strategy marks a broader shift towards a power-driven trade order, where economic dominance supersedes rules-based governance, and that the Global South must act decisively to prevent a future where trade is dictated by the strongest rather than negotiated through fairness and equity.
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International development cooperation in a changing scenario
Summary of the presentation by Dr. Carlos Correa, South Centre Executive Director, at the Emerging Development Partners’ (EDP) Meeting in Bali on 11 June 2024
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Event at the 28th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
“Expanding South-South trade in low carbon technologies for development and resilience”
Co-organized by the South Centre (SC), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Forum on Trade, Environment and the SDGs (TESS)
3 December 2023, 13:30 – 14:30
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Venue: Expo City, Trade House Pavilion
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