Implications of Argentina’s Deal with “Super holdouts”: Need for an Urgent Revision to Bond Contracts and a Debt Workout Mechanism
By Yuefen Li
Argentina signed an agreement in principle on 29 February 2016 with four “super holdout” hedge funds including NML Capital Ltd, Aurelius Capital, Davidson Kempner and Bracebridge Capital. Buenos Aires would pay them a total of about $4.65 billion, amounting to 75 percent of the principal and interest of all their claims of Argentina’s bonds that were defaulted on during the 2001 debt crisis. The payment is to be made in cash before 14 April 2016, provided that Argentina’s Congress approves the repeal of Argentina’s domestic laws, namely the Lock Law and the Sovereign Payment Law, which prohibit the country from proposing terms to the holdouts that are better than those Argentina offered to its creditors in earlier restructurings. This deal would allow the return of Argentina to the international capital market after more than 15 years of exclusion, something that is imperative for the government to try to put the economy on a more sustainable path even though this would mean having to use a substantial part of its foreign currency reserves to pay off the holdout bond holders. Nevertheless, there are systemic implications of this deal to future sovereign debt restructurings which deserve careful examination and remedial actions. (more…)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is perhaps one of the most ambiguous and the least understood concepts in international economics. Common debate on FDI is confounded by several myths regarding its nature and impact on capital accumulation, technological progress, industrialization and growth in emerging and developing economies. It is often portrayed as a long term, stable, cross-border flow of capital that adds to productive capacity, helps meet balance-of-payments shortfalls, transfers technology and management skills, and links domestic firms with wider global markets. (more…)
This policy brief is based on the working paper “The Decade of Adjustment: A Review of Austerity Trends 2010-2020 in 187 Countries” by Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Cummins, Jeronim Capaldo and Kalaivani Karunanethy, published by (more…)
The Decade of Adjustment: A Review of Austerity Trends 2010-2020 in 187 Countries
By Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Cummins, Jeronim Capaldo, Kalaivani Karunanethy. Geneva: ILO, IPD Columbia University and the South Centre.
This paper: (i) examines the latest IMF government spending projections for 187 countries between 2005 and 2020; (ii) reviews 616 IMF country reports in 183 countries to identify the main adjustment measures considered by governments in both high-income and developing countries; (iii) applies the United Nations Global Policy Model to simulate (more…)
Two new Chinese funds totalling US$ 5.1 billion to help developing countries tackle climate change and development problems could be a game changer in South-South cooperation and international relations. China gave a big boost to South-South cooperation when its President, Xi Jinping, made two unprecedented mega pledges totalling US$5.1 billion to assist other developing countries, during his visit to the United States in September. (more…)
Past Mistakes and Current Joint Responsibilities: the Greek debt crisis
By Yuefen Li
With the Greek debt crisis raging on, another round of blame exercise has started. It is not really unhealthy to do so, as with it comes the responsibilities for fixing the crisis. Looking back over the years since Greece joined the euro zone in 2001, it would be correct to say that the Troika -the European Central Bank (ECB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) – as well as the Greek government all have had their share of misjudgments, illusions, technical errors and political prejudices, though some parties more than the others. (more…)
Can the World Afford to Put All Hopes on Debt Contract Improvements for Sovereign Debt Workout?
By Yuefen Li
The lack of a formal sovereign debt restructuring mechanism has been considered by many as a serious deficit or missing link in the international financial architecture. However, even though the international debates on the topic have been going on for decades, heating up each time with the onset of a debt crisis and cooling down when the crisis was contained, up to now such debates have not yet come to fruition. With the onset of the global financial crisis and especially the legal litigation against Argentina and Greek debt crisis, the debate has become even more intensified with views more convergent than ever on the need of a mechanism. For decades, timely and orderly sovereign debt restructuring which can restore medium term debt sustainability to debtor countries as well as less costly to creditors has been the common expectation of stakeholders involved in sovereign debt restructuring, except those who want to get their windfalls in the debt crisis. (more…)
Developing Economies Increasingly Vulnerable in Unstable Global Financial System
By Yılmaz Akyüz
After a series of crises with severe economic and social consequences in the 1990s and early 2000s, emerging and developing economies have become even more closely integrated into what is widely recognised as an inherently unstable international financial system. Both policies in these countries and a highly accommodating global financial environment have played a role. Not only have their traditional cross-border linkages been deepened and external balance sheets expanded rapidly, but also foreign presence in their domestic credit, bond, equity and property markets has reached unprecedented levels. New channels have thus emerged for the transmission of financial shocks from global boom-bust cycles. (more…)
South Centre Statements on Sovereign Debt Restructuring Processes
The following are two Statements presented by the South Centre on Options for moving forward and Crisis Resolution & International Debt Workout Mechanisms for a multilateral legal framework for sovereign debt restructuring processes. (more…)
Many countries are facing a worsening debt situation, and thus feel the urgency to curb ‘vulture funds’ and to set up a global debt restructuring mechanism. External debt is rearing its ugly head again. With the global economic slowdown, lower commodity prices and less tourism, many developing countries are facing reduced export earnings and foreign reserves. No country would like to have to seek the help of the International Monetary Fund to avoid default. That could lead to years of austerity, high unemployment, cuts in social development and at the end of it, still no light at the end of the tunnel. (more…)
Below is a report of the presentation of economics professor Dr. Deepak Nayyar at the South Centre Conference in Geneva. He addresses the situation of developing countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis, while focusing on their real economy variables.
Dr. Deepak Nayyar, emeritus professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University and member of the South Centre’s board, addressed the situation of developing countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis, while focusing on their real economy variables. He noted that developing countries on the whole have fared better than industrialized and transition economies in the aftermath of the crisis. Yet, some high-income emerging economies that depend on exports to the United States and the European Union were hard hit, Nayyar noted. In contrast some large developing countries did not fare badly. For example, the growth performance of Sub-Saharan Africa and some least developed countries has been robust. (more…)
North’s policies are exposing South’s economies to shocks
By Kinda Mohammadieh
Since the onset of the global economic crisis, the South Centre in its analysis had indicated that the policy responses to the crisis by the US and EU are exposing developing countries to serious shocks in the future. Dr. Yilmaz Akyuz (Chief Economist of the South Centre) notes that these arguments are no longer predictions but hard reality. He was speaking at the South Centre Conference in Geneva. (more…)
